When the clock struck midnight on New Year’s Day, and you gleefully clinked glasses of champagne, inevitably spilling half of it on your friend’s coworker’s sister’s cream carpet, California’s pay transparency law went into effect.

The latest domino to fall in a series of pay transparency laws, SB 1162, which was signed into law by Governor Gavin Newsom in September, will have ripple effects that extend far beyond the Golden State.

As Kara Govro, chief HR legal analyst at compliance platform Mineral, told HR Brew, doing business in California is somewhat inescapable, as the state boasts upward of 19 million workers. “California is huge,” she said. “If you’re a national employer and you want to hire remotely, are you really planning to exclude California just to get out of complying with this law?”

Expected to surpass Germany as the fourth-largest economy in the world this year, California is home to Silicon Valley behemoths, the US entertainment industry, and nearly 40 million residents. For comparison, consider New York City’s November pay transparency law, which affects employers conducting business in the comparatively Small Apple of 8.5 million people.

California’s law could have national implications bigger than any of the imaginary waves surfed by one Jeff Spicoli in 1982. While Newsom has been quick to indicate that pay transparency will help fight against pay disparity based on gender and race, California’s law maintains certain clauses—like allowing workers to ask for pay bands for their current jobs—that might cause turmoil among employees, Govro warned.

“Employees are going to talk, they’re going to get disgruntled, morale is going to drop,” she predicted. Keep reading here.—SB

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Remember butterfly clips? Trend forecasters aren’t always right. In fact, we bet HR leaders are better at predicting what’s in and out—so we asked them what trends will be hot in 2023.

Employee experience. As job stability remains precarious, HR leaders will remain focused on ensuring employee success.

“We will continue to see increased transparency around pay. While there is so much good that comes from this, it also brings significant responsibility. Leaders need to ensure conversations around compensation are put into context and well communicated, so that employees have a good understanding about how compensation decisions are made.”—Wendy Edgar, HR director, EY Americas

Employer control. After two years of workers demanding higher wages and better benefits, some experts believe employers will have more power next year.

“After years of intense competition for talent that resulted in increasingly generous treatment toward employees, the balance of power will continue shifting back toward employers in 2023, and many leaders will cite the economic downturn as an excuse to be unreasonably demanding toward their teams.”—Kelly Scheib, CPO, Crunchbase

Tech moves. HR will continue embracing technology to make their workplaces more efficient in an increasingly digital world. But adoption will look different depending on the company.

“The need for data analytics will continue to accelerate as we move into 2023. This will be about more than simply having data; rather, there is a need to analyze and use that data to drive strategy, decision-making, and success.”—Kathy Cullen-Cote, CPO, Teradata

Regardless of what HR leaders say, we’re predicting in-office coffee will remain an in-demand perk next year. Keep reading here.—KP

Do you work in HR or have information about your HR department we should know? Email [email protected]. For completely confidential conversations, ask Kristen for her number on Signal.

Today’s top HR reads.

Stat: $169,000 is the “high-end middle-class income” in the New York area, according to Pew Research Center. That figure is over $200,000 in Washington, DC, Boston, and Seattle. (CNBC)

Quote: “Trauma can change people’s assumptions about themselves and the world…You assume you’re a competent individual worthy of esteem. But if you’re treated badly, you come to believe you’re worthless.”—Ryan Vogel, associate professor at Temple University's Fox School of Business, on how the emotional trauma from previous jobs can affect an employee (Insider)

Read: The RTO battle marches on, as more companies require in-person attendance, while employees continue to push back. (the Wall Street Journal)