March JOLTS data reflects ‘a job market that’s no longer here’

If I could turn back time...

In many ways, March 2025 seems like it was decades ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for that month feels somewhat like an artifact, reflecting a labor market and economy not yet hit by the Trump administration’s tariffs policy unveiled in early April.

“This data is useful as a benchmark to measure the impacts of tariffs against, but…is already reflecting a job market that’s no longer here,” Glassdoor’s lead economist Daniel Zhao told HR Brew.

Diving into the data. Job openings fell by 288,000 month over month, to 7.2 million in March, according to the JOLTS data. Meanwhile, total hires made were at 5.4 million, and workers quitting totaled 3.3 million, both largely unchanged from February. Layoffs and discharges dropped from 1.8 million to 1.6 million.

“I think it reflects how we all felt in March, which was some level of stability,” Isaac Hagen, SVP of emerging verticals and sales excellence at ManpowerGroup, told HR Brew. “Obviously, April has changed a bit of that, but we’re definitely seeing this gradual cooling in the market.”

Looking ahead. Future BLS reports will more likely reflect the economic impact from the administration’s tariffs policy, experts told HR Brew. Sectors more susceptible to tariffs will see quicker effects via labor data, like transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, and retail. Other sectors may take somewhat longer to reflect those effects.

“I think even the April data is probably too soon, but in the summer, we may start seeing the impact on some of the most affected industries trickling through to the rest of the economy later in the year,” Zhao said.

Some of that uncertainty around tariffs’ impact could be appearing in some pockets of the March data, Hagen said. For example, there were 49,000 fewer quits in transportation, warehousing, and utilities, a “pretty big, big drop” for the sector, he said.

“What that suggests to me, and I think we’re seeing that across the board, is employees really wanting to make sure that they have a clear understanding of what’s happening at both the organization but also with the economy before making a decision,” he said. “Some of those sectors that tend to see more turnover are starting not to see that, and I think that's telling of just the wait and see approach in the market.”

Zoom out. Going forward, HR leaders should focus on ensuring their talent strategies are ready to adapt to any changes that come—good or bad—according to Zhao. For example, while quit rates declined for much of 2024, they’ve started increasing again this year. If the economy manages to avoid a recession, those numbers could rebound again.

“It’s important for HR leaders to plan ahead for what might come to pass,” Zhao said. “There’s no guarantee that a recession is coming down the pipeline, but it’s important for leaders to plan for the different scenarios that they might see through the rest of the year.”