We’ve officially reached June, and April—chock-full of economic policy chaos thanks to on-and-off tariffs announcements—might feel like the distant past.
But the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is taking us back to that month. Despite concern from businesses, workers, and consumers over President Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs announcement and subsequent backtracking in April, hiring and labor demand remained fairly strong.
Diving into the data. Employers had 7.4 million job openings posted at the end of April, an increase from an upwardly revised 7.2 million postings in March, and beating economists’ estimates of 7.1 million according to one Bloomberg survey. Meanwhile, total hires in April increased to 5.6 million, up nearly 170,000 from March.
During that same period, quits fell to around 3.2 million in April, down around 150,000 in March, and down 220,000 year over year. Additionally, the number of layoffs and discharges rose by around 200,000 month over month to 1.8 million in April, reversing a similarly sized drop from the previous month.
Despite the shifts in quits and layoffs, the increases in job openings and hires were a surprise for those watching today’s numbers.
“Job openings did unexpectedly rise in April for a good bit, and hiring did pick up. So that’s indicating that the labor market is still remaining fairly healthy,” Rachel Sederberg, senior economist at Lightcast, told HR Brew.
Zoom out. The JOLTS data tends to have high volatility on a month to month basis, so economists tend to look at the broader trends. With that, there are still signs of a strong labor market despite uncertainty.
For instance, the unemployment to vacancy ratio was at 1.03 in April, meaning there was around one job open per unemployed person in the US. While that figure is well below the ratio of 2.0 seen during the Great Resignation, it shows employers continue to have “strong demand” for labor, said Rajesh Namboothiry, SVP at Manpower US.
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What’s more, job openings have hovered between around 7 million and 8 million over the last year, Sederberg noted, “That seems to be where we’re hanging out these days, and that is a very healthy sign.”
That said, how employers fare with labor turnover will vary drastically from industry to industry. White collar industries and jobs requiring more advanced education have seen a decline in labor demand. And some blue collar sectors, like manufacturing and trade, have seen a cooldown. Job openings for manufacturing in durable goods, for example, declined by 16,000 between March and April, and were down 79,000 over the past 12 months.
But other blue collar sectors, or those not requiring higher degrees, have shown stronger demand. For example, job openings in retail trade were up 46,000 month-over-month, in April, and up 83,000 over the year. And health care and social assistance, which has led job growth in the US, saw a 102,000 spike in job openings in April.
“You will see pockets cooling off, you will see employer demand up in certain sectors, and the uncertainty will play out in a way that you will see a mismatch,” Namboothiry said. “You won’t see a trend that is consistent across all sectors. That’s the new normal.”
Beyond that, employers’ own labor turnover and demand will also differ from role-to-role within an organization.
“It’s really going to depend on who you need. If you need college graduates, those with a bachelor’s degree or above…you’re in the driver’s seat of that relationship. If you need those with less than a bachelor’s degree, we are still seeing a lot of demand for those roles,” Sederberg said.