Employers expect to make few changes to hiring for early 2026

Who knew that, when David Byrne donned that big suit in the early ’80s and flailed around in front of a green screen repeatedly chanting “Same as it ever was,” he was perfectly encapsulating the vibes of the labor market some 45 years later?

Rather, that’s the impression we get, as employers plan to make few, if any, changes to their already timid hiring plans going into 2026.

Sitting still. With much of 2025 in the rear-view mirror, talent acquisition (TA) teams are setting their sights on 2026. Economists have already predicted that next year’s labor market will likely see minimal, if any, growth. The 120 senior-level HR decisionmakers who responded to a recent HR Brew survey about hiring expectations for the first half of 2026 said the same.

Nearly half (49%) of respondents expect their hiring for the first half of 2026 to remain constant, unchanged from the second half of 2025, per our last survey, conducted in April.

Just 23% of respondents plan to hire more early next year, up slightly from the 21% who said the same of their hiring plans for the end of 2025. And 22% of respondents plan to hire less in that same period, compared to 26% who said that in April.

While the labor market isn’t expected to collapse in 2026, the incremental growth it’s projected to experience is concerning, experts have warned.

Post-economic anxiety? After upending employers’ hiring plans earlier this year, it seems turmoil over trade policies and the economy now wield less influence.

Just 34% of respondents reported changing hiring plans for the first half of 2026 based on economic uncertainty, compared to the 50% who said the same about the second half of 2025. The results were similar when asked about tariff policy and budget changes’ effect on hiring outlooks.

Respondents expect changes in organization structure, and candidates expectations (for example, around remote work or compensation) to affect their hiring outlooks for the first half of 2026 more than respondents did for the second half of 2025.

Roles wanted. Respondents expect to hire the most for sales and business development, engineering and IT, and customer support and success roles during the first half of 2026. Operations and logistics roles, which were the top roles respondents of our April survey planned to hire for in the second half of 2025, seem to have fallen out of demand, with just 27% reporting plans to fill those roles, down from 39%.

Meanwhile, respondents plan to make the least hires for legal and compliance, product management, and executive positions in early 2026, same as in late 2025.

When it comes to recruiting, 55% of respondents cited candidates’ expectations of better pay or perks as the top obstacle for the first half of 2026, followed by fewer qualified candidates (49%) and balancing time to hire with quality of hire (42%).

AI anxieties. This past year brought about a whole new set of challenges for AI and TA, as recruiters navigated a changing regulatory landscape; candidates using AI to apply for jobs; and some bad actors even using AI tools to pose as job seekers. Unsurprisingly, stress over AI and tech in hiring showed up in survey responses.

Candidates using AI in the application process has become a big issue for HR pros in recent months: 31% of respondents expect identifying AI-generated applications to be a top challenge for early 2026, more than double the 13% who said so of late 2025.

Similarly, while 10% of respondents anticipate a challenge of adapting hiring practices to new tools or technologies during the first half of 2026, just 5% said the same ahead of the second half of 2025.