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Paige McGlauflin

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There’s good news and bad news for anyone who felt like things were not as they appeared to be with the labor market.

The good news: You weren’t crazy. And the bad news: The labor market was performing 

 worse than initially reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Employers added 911,000 fewer jobs between April 2024 and March 2025 than previously reported, according to a 

The preliminary benchmark, accounting for around 76,000 fewer jobs a month on average, is the largest downward revision since 2002. By comparison, 

 downsized job growth by 818,000 (though it was later adjusted to 598,000), and a revision in March 2009 downsized growth by 902,000.

Despite being released in September 2025, the benchmark is unrelated to the latest employment situation data from the BLS, which found that employers added 

“The latest economic data—which are wholly unaffected by today’s preliminary revisions—suggest the labor market is weakening for all workers,” Elise Gould and Ben Zipperer, senior economists at the Economic Policy Institute, 

 via the nonprofit. “Job growth has been especially weak since May. Household survey rates also point to falling prime-age Black employment and higher unemployment for US-born workers.”

Leisure and hospitality saw the steepest downward revision of all major industries, adding 176,000 fewer jobs than originally reported. That was followed by professional and business services and retail trade, which saw declines of 158,000 and 126,200, respectively.

However, transportation and warehousing and utilities both had more job growth than initially reported, adding 6,600 and 3,700, respectively.

Each year, the BLS adjusts its employment numbers for a specific period, originally taken from its monthly establishment survey, using estimates from state unemployment insurance tax records as its benchmark. These records are less timely, but more comprehensive than the BLS’s survey, which has in recent years 

 to get robust response rates. The BLS is expected to release its full revision early next year.

One reason for the discrepancies between the monthly survey data and revisions may be how immigration is factored into each report, Ron Hetrick, principal economist at Lightcast, 

. State unemployment insurance records only include workers who are eligible for unemployment, not undocumented workers who are on employers’ payrolls and pay taxes but ineligible for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, the monthly survey data does not ask about immigration status. And, as the Trump administration began revoking the legal statuses of thousands of immigrants, they were removed from payroll counts.

“There were more people working on payrolls and that is what the survey is measuring. Now they aren’t,” Hetrick wrote. “These people drove growth and were initially counted, and now they are leaving payrolls.”

 Tuesday’s revisions come as the Trump administration has 

 to the agency’s data and practices. President Trump’s nominee to lead the BLS has advocated for releasing the jobs report on a quarterly basis to ensure what he claimed is greater accuracy. But economists reacting to Tuesday’s benchmark data noted that despite its flaws, it’s better to take the monthly report for important talent-related decision making than have to wait months to get that data.

“If I had to choose between less accurate information today to guide a decision, versus more accurate data four months from now—after the decision is made—I’d always choose the former,” Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, 

An illustration of a businessman slipping down a downward trending line graph.

Employers added 910 fewer jobs than initially estimated, per BLS revision

Tuesday’s preliminary benchmark from the BLS marks the largest downward revision of employment data in recent history.

Employers added 910,000 fewer jobs than the BLS originally estimated

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August 

 was, well, not good. Employers made few job gains, while the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in years. As the labor market slowed further this summer, experts have again sounded the alarm about an economic downturn. Let’s take a closer look.

Employers added just 22,000 jobs in August, well below 

 of 75,000. Meanwhile, June job gains were revised down by 13,000, and July job gains were revised up to 79,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest seen since October 2021.

 that a recession may be imminent, while Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s, 

 that the labor market is already in one, and has been since June, Business Insider reported. While one month of data is not enough evidence of a recession, the unemployment rate rising while job gains are slowing is a concerning early sign, said Glassdoor’s chief economist, Daniel Zhao, noting if this trend continues in the coming months, it could trigger the Sahm rule (a recession indicator).

“A more substantial downturn is definitely something that businesses have to plan for,” Zhao said. “It’s not a guarantee, but especially with the increasing unemployment rate there are more signs that the job market is weakening in an unhealthy manner.”

Amy Glaser, SVP of business operations at staffing firm Adecco, cautioned employers against letting the topline August numbers drive their talent decision-making.

“We’ll have to wait and see what comes out in September. At this point, I’m still optimistic the labor market is going to remain resilient and strong,” she said. “We’ve called 2025 the year of durability in terms of the labor market. Unemployment changed very minimally, so there’s still opportunity out there for millions of Americans on a daily basis.”

Healthcare added around 31,000 jobs in August, the largest increase of any industry but also below the average monthly gains of 42,000 that the sector reported over the last year. The healthcare industry has made up the bulk of the labor market’s job gains in recent years, and now a moderation in healthcare hiring may not adequately make up for cooling in other sectors.

“There’s no guarantee that healthcare will continue to add jobs at the pace that we’ve seen in recent years. So even if healthcare is continuing to add jobs in the short to medium term, it might not be enough to outweigh the declines in jobs that we’re seeing across all other industries,” Zhao said.

Healthcare was followed by social assistance, which added more than 16,000 jobs, and accommodation and food services, which added over 13,000 jobs. Additionally, retail trade added 10,000 jobs, mostly driven by general merchandising.

Meanwhile, professional and business services reported a decline, with 17,000 fewer jobs added—the steepest of any industry. That sector was followed by durable goods manufacturing and the federal government, which added 19,000 and 15,000 fewer jobs, respectively.

Unfortunately for employers, it’s uncertain how the economy will play out over the next few months. The Federal Reserve is expected to meet and cut interest rates later this month. Lower interest rates could free up cash for businesses and allow them to pursue business investments that lead to hiring.

“Overall, I would say that rate cuts will be stimulative, but it’s not a guarantee that it will outweigh some of these other factors that aren’t related to rates at all,” Zhao said.

The other primary factor at play is tariffs. Despite being locked up in court challenges, many of President Donald Trump’s 

 went into effect in August, charging a 10% to 50% tax on imported goods, depending on the origin country. The impact of tariffs on consumers and businesses isn’t yet known, though sectors like retail and leisure and hospitality—both of which reported employment gains in August—will likely be negatively affected, according to Zhao.

In light of this uncertainty, Glaser said employers are focused on making multiple contingency plans.

“I think if Covid taught us anything as employers, it taught us the ability to be agile and to move quickly,” she said. “So employers are trying to get ahead of it, as we speak today.”

Weak August jobs data is bad news for employers

“A more substantial downturn is definitely something that businesses have to plan for,” an economist tells HR Brew.

Abysmal August jobs report puts recession fears back on employers’ radar

The dog days of summer are coming to an end, and the labor market is already experiencing a frost.

Employers reported a decline in job openings in July, while all other turnover including hiring and separations stagnated from June, according to Wednesday’s 

job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) data

 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Let’s take a closer look.

Employers reported 7.2 million job openings in July, down from 7.4 million in June. Meanwhile, organizations made 5.3 million hires, and saw 3.2 million quits and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges in July, all unchanged from June.

“Employer cautiousness continues,” Rajesh Namboothiry, SVP at Manpower US, told HR Brew. “They’re not hiring, but they’re not firing either.”

Additionally, the ratio of job openings per unemployed person edged up slightly to 1 in July, which Namboothiry said is a bad sign for job seekers. “It is getting tough for job seekers,” he said, adding, “We know that from data, we know that from talking to our talent, that it is getting tougher for them to find jobs. There are less jobs and more job seekers.”

Healthcare and social assistance reported the steepest drop in job openings (a trend supported by 

), declining by 181,000 between June and July, followed by retail trade and arts, entertainment, and recreation, which fell by 110,000 and 62,000, respectively.

In professional and business services, quits increased by 197,000, the largest spike of any industry, while layoffs fell by 130,000. Meanwhile, quits declined the most in construction (down by 80,000), transportation, warehousing, and utilities, and accommodation and food services (both down by 49,000).

Manufacturing was a bright spot in Wednesday’s data, reporting a 41,000 spike in job openings and an increase of 21,000 hires between June and July.

“We have seen that over the last couple of months manufacturing activities have slightly picked up locally,” Namboothiry said. “So that is an indication that we may see some pockets of manufacturing jobs to be added, skilled trade jobs added, which is a positive.”

HR and TA leaders should expect sluggish turnover to continue in the coming months. While 

 from the Federal Reserve later this month could stimulate some business activity and boost hiring, other challenges—including 

—will likely force businesses to continue their trepidatious approach.

As economic uncertainty festers, businesses will likely continue pursuing short-term talent strategies. Namboothiry said he hasn’t had long-term workforce planning conversations with clients for several months now.

“There was a time when they were looking a year ahead. Now it’s not even a quarter ahead,” Namboothiry said.

A Now Hiring sign with Now crossed out and replaced with Not

July’s sluggish JOLTS data is a sign of what’s to come

Despite rate cuts expected this month, continued economic challenges are expected to only further stagnate labor turnover.

The labor market cooled even further in July. It’s only expected to continue.

Following major shakeups at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), September’s labor market data has many on their toes.

President Donald Trump fired BLS commissioner Erika McEnterfar on Aug. 1, following a 

 that estimated employers added only 73,000 jobs in July and revised job growth down by 258,000 in May and June.

“She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes,” Trump 

 on his social media platform. There has been zero evidence of “rigged” data on her part.

McEnterfar’s removal raised concerns among experts including former BLS commissioners (appointed by both Democratic and Republic presidents), who warned it could 

 Then, on Aug. 11, Trump nominated a replacement: E.J. Antoni, chief economist of the Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank that published Project 2025.

 in front of the Senate HELP Committee this month, has been met with outcry from many economists, who’ve said he is 

 to lead the BLS and fear he would use the agency and its data to 

further the Trump administration’s political agenda

, rather than report objective statistics.

The outcry sends a worrying signal to HR and talent acquisition (TA) leaders, who use BLS data for everything from forecasting changes in labor supply and demand by location to tracking wage growth by industry.

“Bipartisan groups, including former BLS officials and commissioners, economists, watchdog orgs, condemned that firing as a literal threat to statistical independence… [that] is something that will make every chief people officer, every economist, every talent acquisition leader, raise their eyebrows quite a bit,” Matt Staney, VP of community at HIGHER Community, a professional group that counts more than 12,000 senior TA leaders among its members, told HR Brew.

At the time of McEnterfar’s firing, Lauren Winans, CEO and principal HR consultant at Next Level Benefits, assumed that the BLS commissioner must have done something “really egregious” to warrant her dismissal, until she looked at the revisions.

“But then when you dig into it, the updates and the revisions that were made to the data are pretty standard, because it’s statistical data, and because things are collected in somewhat of an antiquated way, and there are delays,” she said, adding later, “I thought the rush to judgment to immediately go after the commissioner was a little shortsighted, because then it creates this crack in the stability and the credibility of the agency itself.”

. But proposals from the Trump administration and Antoni to “improve the data”—by 

 for a quarterly, for example—could impact how HR leaders craft their hiring strategies, Winans said. Additionally, after significant methodological changes, it could take months before the data is trustworthy again.

“Certainly if they make a shift in methodology, I probably would give it at least a couple of cycles before I maybe trust the data, because when you switch that methodology, that does kind of create some significant change in the way the numbers look and how long it takes to kind of catch up with itself,” Winans said, noting she would continue to use the data as one of several indicators of economic health.

However, McEnterfar’s baseless firing over an upsetting jobs report has already sowed mistrust in future data among HR and TA leaders, said Staney. Employers were planning their hiring strategies on a quarterly basis, as crises from policies like tariffs worsened economic uncertainty. As the integrity of the jobs data creates more uncertainty, TA leaders’ planning will only become more short term.

“When TA leaders pitch workforce strategy to execs, they need to be able to point to independent and trusted sources, and we’re running out of those now, if these sources become political tools,” said Staney. “If he just implants a loyalist into the BLS to just paint whatever picture he wants, we’re going to be flying completely blind, and nobody’s going to trust anything, and companies are not going to hire in a healthy way, and our unemployment situation will worsen.”

President Donald Trump stands in the oval office, with large printouts of economic graphs stacked on the Resolute desk

BLS’s leadership shakeup sends worrying signal for employers

President Trump’s firing of the BLS commissioner, and subsequent outcry from experts, is a bad sign for HR leaders who rely on the data.

Why leadership changes at the BLS are worrying for employers

While we may be in the middle of summer, the labor market is experiencing a cold front.

Employers added fewer jobs than expected in July, according to the 

 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, a significant downward revision to the May and June data suggested actual job gains were much lower than the robust numbers originally reported.

July’s weak numbers and the revisions for May and June 

 Erika McEntarfer, claiming via his social media platform that the numbers were “manipulated for political purposes.”

The newest employment data suggests that employers, faced with a myriad of economic challenges—including uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff threats, the administration’s immigration crackdown 

, and high interest rates—are opting to hunker down instead of investing in growing their businesses and expanding their workforce.

“There’s generally this cautiousness,” Rajesh Namboothiry, SVP at Manpower US, told HR Brew. “They’re just watching how this will play out over the next six months.”

Employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the Dow Jones’ estimate of 100,000. The BLS also reported steeper than usual revisions for May and June. Employers added just 19,000 jobs in May, and 14,000 in June, around 258,000 less than originally reported.

“With downward revisions anticipated in September’s benchmark revision, a major reassessment of the labor market’s health is likely. However, it has been evident throughout the year that the labor market lacks momentum,” Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, 

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% in July, but continued to hover between the range of 4% and 4.2% from May 2024. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings for employees rose by 12 cents to $36.44, a 0.3% increase.

Healthcare added more than 55,000 jobs, beating its own 12-month average monthly gains of 42,000, with growth largely driven by ambulatory healthcare services and hospitals. Meanwhile, social assistance saw the second-highest job gains, adding 18,000 in July, with the bulk of hiring in individual and family services.

Healthcare and social assistance were among the few sectors with strong job growth, said Namboothiry. “Every other sector is actually pulling back. So this is an indication of employers saying we’re going to just wait and watch. We’re not going to hire at this point.”

Employment in the federal government declined by 12,000 jobs in July, falling 84,000 since its peak in January. Professional and business services saw 14,000 fewer jobs added, the largest drop of any sector, driven by losses in administrative and support services, while manufacturing and nondurable goods both reported job losses of 11,000.

Right now, many employers are focusing on maintaining their businesses instead of growing, and holding back on hiring except for essential roles, Namboothiry said. For companies, this is a prime opportunity to invest in training their workforce to help them meet the challenges that arrive in the months ahead.

“You don’t have to future proof your workforce today. You don’t have to build the workforce of the future three years from now, today. But you’ve gotta maintain, and you’ve gotta continue to upskill your talent,” he said.

A businessman stands in front of and looks at a giant stack of dominoes that are about to collapse on top of him.

Weak job gains in July highlight employers’ economic anxiety

“This is an indication of employers saying we’re going to just wait and watch, we’re not going to hire at this point.”

July’s weak job gains and revisions spotlights employers’ economic anxiety-driven hiring pullback

The labor market is like those slimy pests that love eating the tomato plants growing in your garden: sluggish.

 that existing economic uncertainty and new turmoil driven by President Trump’s ongoing tariff threats could send the labor market into a tailspin. While that hasn’t occurred, the latest

 (JOLTS) data for June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that the labor market is continuing its slow but steady cooldown.

In some ways, it’s a blessing and a curse: While the job market hasn’t gone off the deep end, its continual stagnation is also creating its own problems. For example, as fewer opportunities open up externally, employees will be less likely to quit, stalling internal mobility opportunities.

“The story is not one of a job market that is collapsing. Instead, we see much like we’ve seen in the last few months, that the job market is cooling gradually,” said Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor’s lead economist. “But we are still seeing the same pattern in the JOLTS data that has helped explain why workers feel so sour about the current job market.”

Employers had 7.4 million job openings posted at the end of June, a decline of 275,000 from the previous month. Accommodation and food services saw the biggest drop in openings, declining by 308,000 to 754,000 in June. That was followed by healthcare and social assistance (declining 244,000) and finance and insurance (down 142,000).

Meanwhile, retail trade increased by 190,000 to 656,000 job openings, the highest monthly increase for the June data, followed by professional and business services increasing by 156,000, and information by 67,000.

Meanwhile, organizations made 261,000 fewer hires month over month, recording just 5.2 million hires in June. Professional and business services recorded the steepest monthly drop in hires between May and June, reporting 936,000 total hires, a decline of 133,000 month over month. That was followed by accommodation and food services (declining 106,000), and arts, entertainment, and recreation (falling 42,000).

The number of employees quitting declined by 128,000 to 3.1 million, while layoffs and discharges remained relatively unchanged at 1.6 million in June. With total separations, professional and business services declined by 56,000 to a total of 944,000 for the month. Meanwhile, retail trade recorded the highest spike in separations, increasing by 31,000 to 612,000 in June—of that total, 440,000 were employees quitting.

As speculation over whether AI is replacing white-collar jobs mounts, including in professional services and finance, 

 that the technology could be a factor in job turnover plummeting for these sectors.

 prompting cost-cutting measures, including offshoring jobs and layoffs, are what’s really driving a slowdown in these fields. While some jobs, such as administrative services, might be more susceptible to employers wanting to replace workers with AI, this interest is still being driven primarily by cost savings, Zhao said.

“I think it’s hard to see evidence that AI is specifically driving the slow down in jobs growth that we’re seeing. Instead, I suspect it’s a little bit reversed where, right now, jobs growth in general is slow, and that’s being driven by macroeconomic factors rather than AI,” Zhao added.

As economic uncertainty persists, employers will have to be prepared for the labor market to shift in any direction. That’ll mean continuing to plan for a myriad of scenarios, according to Zhao.

“Given how much uncertainty there is right now, it would be irresponsible to stick our heads in the sand and pretend that there is only one path forward.”

HR leaders will want to keep an eye on their workers as well. With fewer opportunities opening up internally and externally, workers are more and more susceptible to resentment and disengagement, Zhao claims.

“I think it’s important for HR leaders to recognize that employee disengagement is likely to be a significant problem right now, and might even be worse than in other job market contexts,” Zhao said, “because so many workers are prioritizing job security and would rather sit in place in a job where they are disengaged and unhappy rather than test the waters on the open market.”

a graphic of a cartoon man walking on a stock market chart

Why June’s sluggish labor turnover data spells trouble for employers

Employee resentment could climb as high as these heat wave temps.

June’s sluggish labor turnover data could spell trouble for employers

Even if you’re only making a couple bucks an hour working at a summer camp or stocking shelves at the grocery store, the first job in one’s career can feel life-changing.

But many teens today are missing out on that experience.

While the overall unemployment rate has hovered between 4% and 4.2% since May 2024, joblessness for teenagers aged 16 to 19 rose from 12.3% in June 2024 to 14.4% in June 2025—a 17% increase overall. Teens currently are the age group with the highest unemployment rate. Meanwhile, unemployment for people aged 20 to 24, who have also experienced difficulty finding employment this year, increased 9% year over year to 8.2%

Rising teen unemployment primarily relates to the fact that employers have made fewer hires overall after peaking in early 2022 during the “Great Resignation,” especially in sectors where teenagers are most likely to find jobs, such as leisure and hospitality and retail trade. As such, hiring for this age group will be weaker this year.

Predictions from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas suggest 

 from May through July 2025, down from the 1.1 million gained during the same period last year (which was 200,000 lower than the firm originally predicted).

“They’ve really seen the most deterioration, which historically is what you would expect during times where things are slowing down [and] unemployment is going up. It’s always concentrated among that 16-to-19 range, and part of it just has to do a lot with where they work,” Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, told HR Brew.

And, as older workers experience difficulties finding employment, they could be applying to jobs with lower barriers to entry, including those that are often occupied by teenagers, creating more competition for younger workers, said Nich Tremper, senior economist at Gusto.

 aged 15 to 19 were on track to be consistent with historical rates, though employment growth for this age group is smaller than in past years. Employment for 15- to 19-year-olds grew by just 11.8% in May this year on Gusto’s platform, down from 14.3% in May 2024 and 14.4% in May 2023. At the same time, hiring for college grads is down 16% year over year.

“Teens are, in a lot of ways, feeling some stress finding that seasonal job when folks economy-wide, especially those who are at the entry points of their careers, those who are 20 to 26 are experiencing some of the difficulties in finding a job,” Tremper said. “So some of what might be happening here is this crowding out effect.”

While the rising unemployment numbers for teens may raise concerns, they are still a far cry from other relatively recent economic crises. By comparison, teen unemployment was at 27.2% in October 2009, in the wake of the Great Recession, and at 32.8% in April 2020.

“We are not yet at crisis level for very young workers, but we are at a point where momentum is very clearly shifting in a bad direction for them,” Kantenga said.

Missing out on employment opportunities at the very start of one’s career can bring lifelong consequences. Young people who experience joblessness for six months or more can miss out on 

 in wages that they will never recoup, a 2013 analysis from the Center for American Progress found. Unemployment during this age can also lead to 

 outcomes later in life, and be a factor contributing to whether a young person 

“Those first interactions with the labor market are really critical and important,” Kantenga said. “That’s why it makes sense for us to be concerned…even though, overall, the unemployment rate for this particular group is not at a crisis level right now, but it is concerning that there’s less momentum, given we know that the impacts are quite significant over someone’s lifetime.”

Moreover, these young workers will remember 

 in the hiring process, and that can lead to long-term consequences for employers, Kantenga noted. While businesses currently have more leverage in the labor market as workers experience greater competition for open roles, that could change in the future and come back to bite employers.

“The question is…Is there potentially long-term damage you did when you had the leverage, that you won’t necessarily be able to make up for? I think that’s probably something that if you’re in talent, particularly talent acquisition, you have to figure out what that trade-off is going to be,” Kantenga said.

For HR leaders, teens present an opportunity to invest in highly moldable talent while also benefitting from lower labor costs—something that employers have continually cited as a challenge.

“This is a way that you are able to support your business and support folks as they’re establishing their careers and establishing ways to work in ways that might be cost effective for your business,” Tremper said.

Two teenage girls work the cash register at an ice cream shop.

Teen unemployment is on the rise

While the overall unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the last year, joblessness for 16-to-19-year-olds rose 17% in that same period.