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An illustration of a photo of HR Brew reporter Paige McGlauflin.

Paige McGlauflin

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While we may be in the middle of summer, the labor market is experiencing a cold front.

Employers added fewer jobs than expected in July, according to the 

 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, a significant downward revision to the May and June data suggested actual job gains were much lower than the robust numbers originally reported.

July’s weak numbers and the revisions for May and June 

 Erika McEntarfer, claiming via his social media platform that the numbers were “manipulated for political purposes.”

The newest employment data suggests that employers, faced with a myriad of economic challenges—including uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff threats, the administration’s immigration crackdown 

, and high interest rates—are opting to hunker down instead of investing in growing their businesses and expanding their workforce.

“There’s generally this cautiousness,” Rajesh Namboothiry, SVP at Manpower US, told HR Brew. “They’re just watching how this will play out over the next six months.”

Employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the Dow Jones’ estimate of 100,000. The BLS also reported steeper than usual revisions for May and June. Employers added just 19,000 jobs in May, and 14,000 in June, around 258,000 less than originally reported.

“With downward revisions anticipated in September’s benchmark revision, a major reassessment of the labor market’s health is likely. However, it has been evident throughout the year that the labor market lacks momentum,” Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, 

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% in July, but continued to hover between the range of 4% and 4.2% from May 2024. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings for employees rose by 12 cents to $36.44, a 0.3% increase.

Healthcare added more than 55,000 jobs, beating its own 12-month average monthly gains of 42,000, with growth largely driven by ambulatory healthcare services and hospitals. Meanwhile, social assistance saw the second-highest job gains, adding 18,000 in July, with the bulk of hiring in individual and family services.

Healthcare and social assistance were among the few sectors with strong job growth, said Namboothiry. “Every other sector is actually pulling back. So this is an indication of employers saying we’re going to just wait and watch. We’re not going to hire at this point.”

Employment in the federal government declined by 12,000 jobs in July, falling 84,000 since its peak in January. Professional and business services saw 14,000 fewer jobs added, the largest drop of any sector, driven by losses in administrative and support services, while manufacturing and nondurable goods both reported job losses of 11,000.

Right now, many employers are focusing on maintaining their businesses instead of growing, and holding back on hiring except for essential roles, Namboothiry said. For companies, this is a prime opportunity to invest in training their workforce to help them meet the challenges that arrive in the months ahead.

“You don’t have to future proof your workforce today. You don’t have to build the workforce of the future three years from now, today. But you’ve gotta maintain, and you’ve gotta continue to upskill your talent,” he said.

A businessman stands in front of and looks at a giant stack of dominoes that are about to collapse on top of him.

Weak job gains in July highlight employers’ economic anxiety

“This is an indication of employers saying we’re going to just wait and watch, we’re not going to hire at this point.”

July’s weak job gains and revisions spotlights employers’ economic anxiety-driven hiring pullback

The labor market is like those slimy pests that love eating the tomato plants growing in your garden: sluggish.

 that existing economic uncertainty and new turmoil driven by President Trump’s ongoing tariff threats could send the labor market into a tailspin. While that hasn’t occurred, the latest

 (JOLTS) data for June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that the labor market is continuing its slow but steady cooldown.

In some ways, it’s a blessing and a curse: While the job market hasn’t gone off the deep end, its continual stagnation is also creating its own problems. For example, as fewer opportunities open up externally, employees will be less likely to quit, stalling internal mobility opportunities.

“The story is not one of a job market that is collapsing. Instead, we see much like we’ve seen in the last few months, that the job market is cooling gradually,” said Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor’s lead economist. “But we are still seeing the same pattern in the JOLTS data that has helped explain why workers feel so sour about the current job market.”

Employers had 7.4 million job openings posted at the end of June, a decline of 275,000 from the previous month. Accommodation and food services saw the biggest drop in openings, declining by 308,000 to 754,000 in June. That was followed by healthcare and social assistance (declining 244,000) and finance and insurance (down 142,000).

Meanwhile, retail trade increased by 190,000 to 656,000 job openings, the highest monthly increase for the June data, followed by professional and business services increasing by 156,000, and information by 67,000.

Meanwhile, organizations made 261,000 fewer hires month over month, recording just 5.2 million hires in June. Professional and business services recorded the steepest monthly drop in hires between May and June, reporting 936,000 total hires, a decline of 133,000 month over month. That was followed by accommodation and food services (declining 106,000), and arts, entertainment, and recreation (falling 42,000).

The number of employees quitting declined by 128,000 to 3.1 million, while layoffs and discharges remained relatively unchanged at 1.6 million in June. With total separations, professional and business services declined by 56,000 to a total of 944,000 for the month. Meanwhile, retail trade recorded the highest spike in separations, increasing by 31,000 to 612,000 in June—of that total, 440,000 were employees quitting.

As speculation over whether AI is replacing white-collar jobs mounts, including in professional services and finance, 

 that the technology could be a factor in job turnover plummeting for these sectors.

 prompting cost-cutting measures, including offshoring jobs and layoffs, are what’s really driving a slowdown in these fields. While some jobs, such as administrative services, might be more susceptible to employers wanting to replace workers with AI, this interest is still being driven primarily by cost savings, Zhao said.

“I think it’s hard to see evidence that AI is specifically driving the slow down in jobs growth that we’re seeing. Instead, I suspect it’s a little bit reversed where, right now, jobs growth in general is slow, and that’s being driven by macroeconomic factors rather than AI,” Zhao added.

As economic uncertainty persists, employers will have to be prepared for the labor market to shift in any direction. That’ll mean continuing to plan for a myriad of scenarios, according to Zhao.

“Given how much uncertainty there is right now, it would be irresponsible to stick our heads in the sand and pretend that there is only one path forward.”

HR leaders will want to keep an eye on their workers as well. With fewer opportunities opening up internally and externally, workers are more and more susceptible to resentment and disengagement, Zhao claims.

“I think it’s important for HR leaders to recognize that employee disengagement is likely to be a significant problem right now, and might even be worse than in other job market contexts,” Zhao said, “because so many workers are prioritizing job security and would rather sit in place in a job where they are disengaged and unhappy rather than test the waters on the open market.”

a graphic of a cartoon man walking on a stock market chart

Why June’s sluggish labor turnover data spells trouble for employers

Employee resentment could climb as high as these heat wave temps.

June’s sluggish labor turnover data could spell trouble for employers

Even if you’re only making a couple bucks an hour working at a summer camp or stocking shelves at the grocery store, the first job in one’s career can feel life-changing.

But many teens today are missing out on that experience.

While the overall unemployment rate has hovered between 4% and 4.2% since May 2024, joblessness for teenagers aged 16 to 19 rose from 12.3% in June 2024 to 14.4% in June 2025—a 17% increase overall. Teens currently are the age group with the highest unemployment rate. Meanwhile, unemployment for people aged 20 to 24, who have also experienced difficulty finding employment this year, increased 9% year over year to 8.2%

Rising teen unemployment primarily relates to the fact that employers have made fewer hires overall after peaking in early 2022 during the “Great Resignation,” especially in sectors where teenagers are most likely to find jobs, such as leisure and hospitality and retail trade. As such, hiring for this age group will be weaker this year.

Predictions from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas suggest 

 from May through July 2025, down from the 1.1 million gained during the same period last year (which was 200,000 lower than the firm originally predicted).

“They’ve really seen the most deterioration, which historically is what you would expect during times where things are slowing down [and] unemployment is going up. It’s always concentrated among that 16-to-19 range, and part of it just has to do a lot with where they work,” Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, told HR Brew.

And, as older workers experience difficulties finding employment, they could be applying to jobs with lower barriers to entry, including those that are often occupied by teenagers, creating more competition for younger workers, said Nich Tremper, senior economist at Gusto.

 aged 15 to 19 were on track to be consistent with historical rates, though employment growth for this age group is smaller than in past years. Employment for 15- to 19-year-olds grew by just 11.8% in May this year on Gusto’s platform, down from 14.3% in May 2024 and 14.4% in May 2023. At the same time, hiring for college grads is down 16% year over year.

“Teens are, in a lot of ways, feeling some stress finding that seasonal job when folks economy-wide, especially those who are at the entry points of their careers, those who are 20 to 26 are experiencing some of the difficulties in finding a job,” Tremper said. “So some of what might be happening here is this crowding out effect.”

While the rising unemployment numbers for teens may raise concerns, they are still a far cry from other relatively recent economic crises. By comparison, teen unemployment was at 27.2% in October 2009, in the wake of the Great Recession, and at 32.8% in April 2020.

“We are not yet at crisis level for very young workers, but we are at a point where momentum is very clearly shifting in a bad direction for them,” Kantenga said.

Missing out on employment opportunities at the very start of one’s career can bring lifelong consequences. Young people who experience joblessness for six months or more can miss out on 

 in wages that they will never recoup, a 2013 analysis from the Center for American Progress found. Unemployment during this age can also lead to 

 outcomes later in life, and be a factor contributing to whether a young person 

“Those first interactions with the labor market are really critical and important,” Kantenga said. “That’s why it makes sense for us to be concerned…even though, overall, the unemployment rate for this particular group is not at a crisis level right now, but it is concerning that there’s less momentum, given we know that the impacts are quite significant over someone’s lifetime.”

Moreover, these young workers will remember 

 in the hiring process, and that can lead to long-term consequences for employers, Kantenga noted. While businesses currently have more leverage in the labor market as workers experience greater competition for open roles, that could change in the future and come back to bite employers.

“The question is…Is there potentially long-term damage you did when you had the leverage, that you won’t necessarily be able to make up for? I think that’s probably something that if you’re in talent, particularly talent acquisition, you have to figure out what that trade-off is going to be,” Kantenga said.

For HR leaders, teens present an opportunity to invest in highly moldable talent while also benefitting from lower labor costs—something that employers have continually cited as a challenge.

“This is a way that you are able to support your business and support folks as they’re establishing their careers and establishing ways to work in ways that might be cost effective for your business,” Tremper said.

Two teenage girls work the cash register at an ice cream shop.

Teen unemployment is on the rise

While the overall unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the last year, joblessness for 16-to-19-year-olds rose 17% in that same period.

Teen unemployment is on the rise. Here’s why that matters for employers.

Right now, some HR leaders can’t see the forest for the trees when it comes to their talent acquisition strategy.

Net employment expectations fell for the third quarter of 2025 as ongoing economic uncertainty continues to 

 of 6,000 US employers from staffing firm ManpowerGroup found. While it’s understandably difficult to strategize with ever-changing global trade policies, getting caught up in the turmoil also comes with its own set of ramifications, one expert told HR Brew.

US organizations’ net employment outlook for the third quarter, or July through September—calculated by subtracting plans for layoffs from hiring expectations—fell to 30%, down from 34% in the prior quarter, according to ManpowerGroup’s survey.

More specifically, 44% of employers expect to increase recruitment, while another 39% plan to maintain their current staffing levels, 14% expect to decrease their ranks, and 3% are unsure.

“Employers continue to just be cautious,” Rajesh Namboothiry, SVP at Manpower US, told HR Brew. “They’re hiring for key roles. They’re pausing on roles that are not of significant strategic importance because that’s a reflection of their overall demand cycle as well.”

Of the industries ManpowerGroup surveyed, information technology, financials and real estate, and industrials and materials were most likely to hire, while energy and utilities, and communication services were among those with the lowest outlooks. Large companies with 250–5,000 workers also had the strongest hiring intentions (35% or more), while small employers with 10 or less staffers reported the weakest (less than 29%).

Economic uncertainty, fueled by the Trump administration’s ongoing and ever-changing tariff threats, continued to impact employers’ outlooks. Of organizations expecting to decrease their workforce in the next quarter, 44% said economic challenges were the reason why. And 58% of employers overall cited global trade uncertainty as creating “moderate” to “a lot of” impact on their hiring decisions.

The IT sector reported the highest volatility from global trade uncertainty at 69%, followed by financials and real estate (62%) and communication services (58%).

Employers are “plagued by the economic challenges,” Namboothiry said, and keep getting caught up thinking about talent strategy in the short-term.

“They’re sitting tight and saying, ‘Okay, one more month. Let’s see how it goes, and then we’ll start hiring.’ But very soon, you’ll start to get into the 2026 planning cycle, the next three years’ cycle,” he noted. HR leaders instead need to focus on the next two-to-three-years ahead, the market shifts that might happen during that time, and what’s required to get ahead of them now. “Look at the longer term horizon. Don’t be tactical and transactional for what you need today or next month,” Namboothiry said.

Some longer-term shifts are on HR leaders’ minds. For example, 55% of companies say that growing numbers of retiring workers exiting the workforce is affecting their HR strategy. If employers continue to focus solely on the short-term, they’ll find themselves in a lot more trouble down the road, according to ManpowerGroup.

“You see this exit in the workforce, you see some stagnation in the economy, and then you see employers holding off on hiring. That’s a perfect storm…that’s going to continue to plague the market overall,” Namboothiry said. “Something’s got to give here, and I think part of that is employers have to start planning for the future, and think about all these demographic shifts happening in their workspace.”

Economic uncertainty clouds companies’ employment outlook

Getting caught up in the turmoil comes with its own ramifications, one expert tells HR Brew.

Employment outlook for Q3 dips as employers face economic uncertainty

We’re approaching the hottest months of the year, yet employers’ hiring plans are experiencing a deep freeze.

Late last year, an HR Brew survey found that HR pros planned to 

 in the early months of 2025 compared to 2024. Now, based on a new survey of 336 HR Brew readers, those plans remain unchanged for the rest of the year, largely due to economic headwinds prompting continued uncertainty.

Around 50% of respondents to HR Brew’s survey say they plan to hire about the same amount of people in the second half of 2025 as they did in the first half. Another 26% will hire fewer workers, while just 21% plan to hire more (4% were unsure).

Pie chart depicting how hiring outlook for the second half of 2025 compares with hiring for the first half of the same year.

When comparing hiring plans year over year, the hiring cooldown becomes more notable:

Bar chart depicting comparing hiring from the second half of 2024 and hiring plans for the second half of 2025.

When asked what’s driving changes in hiring plans for this period, employers planning to hire fewer workers primarily pointed to economic uncertainty (64%), followed by budget changes (56%), industry slowdown (35%), changes in organizational priorities (34%), and tariff policy (27%).

Smaller businesses, with less than 100 employees, have a notably less optimistic hiring outlook compared to larger employers. Smaller employers, for instance, reported an 8% increase in planning to make no hires between the second half of 2024 and the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, enterprise employers with 1,000 or more employees plan to make at least one hire in this period, mirroring the second half of 2024. Nearly three-quarters (72%) of the latter plan to hire 100 or more workers through the rest of the year.

Healthcare and health services, which has 

 employment in other sectors, is the industry surveyed expecting the largest uptick in hiring for later this year, with 30% saying they plan to hire more workers. Around 57% of respondents in this sector said their hiring plans remain unchanged from the first part of the year, and just 13% said they plan to hire less.

Meanwhile, respondents in government and nonprofits were the least likely of those surveyed to hire more workers in the second half of 2025. Around 34% of respondents in this sector said they plan to hire fewer people in the latter half of this year, while 56% said their hiring would stay the same, and only 6% plan to increase hiring.

Federal government employment took a hit in early 2025 as the Trump administration and its Department of Government Efficiency task force cut 

 first implemented in January to mid-July. Nonprofits, meanwhile, have suffered from 

 as well as a broader decline in charitable giving.

Operations and logistics roles made up the bulk of positions that respondents plan to hire for in late 2025, at 40%. That’s followed by sales and business development roles (34%), engineering and IT (33%), and customer support and success (31%).

When asked what challenges they anticipate with recruitment in the latter half of this year, candidates expecting higher pay or better perks was the top issue, selected by 47% of respondents. Another 42% anticipate getting fewer qualified candidates, 39% cited limited hiring budgets or headcount approvals, and 36% said balancing speed with the quality of hires would be a significant issue.

Illustrated uncertain man looks at four empty office chairs with a sign stating "hiring" placed on each one.

Hiring cooldown expected to continue in second half of 2025

Economic uncertainty is the biggest reason why.

Few employers plan to increase hiring in the second half of 2025

Economists’ expectations for the monthly jobs report couldn’t be any lower these days.

Despite that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ newest 

 for May once again exceeded dour presumptions, even as the labor market continued to slow down from its feverish churn a few years back.

Employers added 139,000 jobs in May, beating 

 of 120,000, but declining from the 147,000 job gain reported in April. At the same time, employment growth stats for March and April were revised down by 95,000. March payroll growth shrank from 185,000 jobs added, as originally estimated, to 120,000 jobs added, and April contracted from 177,000 job gains to 147,000.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged in May at 4.2%, and has hovered between a range of 4% and 4.2% since May 2024. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose by 15 cents to $36.24 in May, a 0.4% increase. Despite this broader cooldown, the stronger-than-expected jobs data indicates that the labor market continues to be resilient.

“We’ve heard a lot of talk about our employers dialing back, and I think given the JOLTS report and what we’re seeing [today] that they’re still hiring out there,” Amy Glaser, SVP of business operations at staffing firm Adecco, told HR Brew.

Healthcare again led with job growth, adding 62,000 jobs last month, significantly higher than its 12-month average monthly gain of 44,000, particularly bolstered by growth in hospitals and ambulatory healthcare services, which added 30,000 and 29,000 jobs, respectively.

“Healthcare is booming, which is interesting,” said Isaac Hagen, SVP of emerging verticals and sales excellence at ManpowerGroup. Healthcare also faces challenges including outdated credentialing, worker burnout, and limited labor supply, Hagen noted. “As we can see these big jobs numbers in healthcare, there’s a lot of pressure on talent leaders right now and the industry as a whole. So that's just something that needs attention.”

Leisure and hospitality also reported strong employment growth, adding 48,000 jobs in May, primarily in food services and drinking places. That type of growth was expected as hiring within this industry picks up during the summer months, Glaser said.

The news continued to be bad for federal workers, though, as federal employment declined by 22,000 jobs, and has fallen 59,000 since January, under the second Trump administration’s job cuts and hiring freeze. Additionally, durable goods manufacturing fell by 7,000 in May, reflecting 

Temporary help services also declined, by 20,000 to 2.51 million total employed. Temporary staffing has seen a decline since March 2022, with May marking the lowest employment total for the subsector since August 2020.

This ongoing decline is “unprecedented” for the staffing industry, Glaser said. However, she noted that Adecco is already speaking with clients about their “September surge” hiring plans.

“That number doesn’t bring too much cause of concern,” she said. “I think we have started seeing rebound within the industry, and we’ll continue to see improvement over the upcoming months.”

With the labor market cooling, and workers increasingly staying put with their employers, HR leaders have an opportunity to tackle bigger projects within their talent strategies.

“I think we’re going to see this for a while now, where companies have the ability to upskill, reskill, invest in the people they need, really think about talent mobility,” Hagen said. “What we’re recommending is talent leaders really take advantage of that, because the data shows that it’s the right environment to do the things that often can’t get done because you’re hiring like crazy.”

Additionally, while retention is increasing because employees are reluctant to look for a new job amid economic uncertainty, employers have an opportunity to make sure that they are paying attention to workers’ priorities, Glaser said, like flexible work arrangements, including hybrid work and alternative scheduling.

“The one thing we still have to remember, despite what you’re seeing in potential wage gains, it’s just that demand for flexibility,” she said, noting that 

 generations, and not just Gen Z, value flexibility in some form. “That would be my one piece of advice as they’re navigating through potentially turbulent waters at times, just to make sure you’re putting the employee and their needs central and first, and I think the rest will all play out.”

Job seekers stand in line at a booth at a job fair.

Employers added 139,000 jobs in May, beating expectations

HR leaders can take advantage of the labor market slowing down, experts say.

Employers reported higher than expected job gains in May, while labor market cooldown continued

Adam DeRose

Hiring software company Greenhouse announced a new feature this week that allows job seekers to identify and signal that a job opening is their top choice.

Dream Job, the feature Greenhouse announced Thursday, gives applicants the ability to select one job per month as their “dream job” and the platform will share that information with the employer, offering a new data point for recruiters to consider when looking to fill open roles.

“Everybody's falling into an AI doom loop, where, for really logical reasons and sensible things, each person’s optimizing locally, and it’s creating a really bad thing,” Greenhouse cofounder and president Jon Stross told HR Brew, pointing to AI assists with writing job descriptions, candidates optimizing cover letters and resumes with AI, and the AI tools recruiters use to match and grade those applications. “It just feels like noise…The whole system kind of breaks down for everyone.”

Many recruiters are addressing these current top-of-funnel issues by relying more on referrals and outbound recruiting, according to Stross, because recruiters are looking to different signals in order to help organize their workflow amid all the noise.

“It’s not that those 1000 applicants are unqualified,” he said. “There’s wonderful folks in there. It’s just really hard to tell apart.”

The Dream Job feature can help sort that pile with a new limiting signal: This is the job a candidate wants most. It’s a concept borrowed from other high-volume selection problems—like college admissions and dating apps.

“You had an opaque or friction-filled process,” Stross said of applying for college before the Internet era. “I had to use a typewriter to apply to colleges. I’d write different essays for every school—so I applied to three schools.”

After the college admissions non-profit Common App grew in popularity and its application became accessible online, a similar volume problem occurred for colleges and universities.

“You fill out your information once, and you hit 25 check boxes. You’ve just applied to 25 schools. So in some sense, it solves the problem, because it made it easier to apply,” Stross said. “But what it really did is it just created this huge inundation of applications…As an applicant, or somebody trying to go to college, it’s tremendously stressful, because you have to apply to all these places and all the rejection rates are really high.”

It made the situation worse for schools, too. Stross said to address the volume issue, colleges and universities turned to a different constraint: early decision. Applicants could still apply to those 25 schools, but it’s only possible to apply for an early decision from one university, and if an applicant is accepted to that school, they agree to enroll.

“What schools figured out is, we would love to have a class of people who truly want to be here. It takes away all of the uncertainty for them that they’re going to accept people [and] they’re not going to come,” he said. “They realized that the intent signal is as valuable as the grade point average in SAT scores.”

Stross also pointed to a similar problem arc in the dating landscape. Finding a romantic partner out in the wild was hard. Meeting folks in bars and through friends was challenging and time consuming. Dating apps helped increase candidate pool for dates, but this new system also introduced a challenge for users looking to assess if someone was swiping right because dating is a numbers game or if they’re swiping right because they too enjoy hiking, cats, and cuddling up on the couch on Friday nights watching trashy TV.

Enter Tinder’s Super Like, SuperSwipes on Bumble, and Roses on Hinge. This new signal tells users this person isn’t just swiping right but is

. So far, the Super Like has not aided me in finding love, but there’s always tomorrow.

“When folks use those, they tend to match at a higher rate,” Stross said, suggesting that the same principle can apply to jobs.

Dream Job submissions, according to Greenhouse, are already moving faster through hiring pipelines. Dream Job applicants see application review after about six days, compared to 19 days for standard applicants.

For candidates, it’s a chance to improve the odds in a crowded field, but for recruiters it can provide new insights about fit. Who doesn’t want someone working for their company that really wants to be there? Greenhouse’s new Dream Job feature is available for free for applicants who sign up for a MyGreenhouse account when they apply to jobs.

More than 300,000 candidates have signed up for MyGreenhouse since its April launch, and more than 10,000 jobs have been identified as a Dream Job, according to the company.

In addition to the monthly Dream Job signal, MyGreenhouse users have access to quick apply, which allows them to input their information once and then use auto-fill to apply for job openings across all Greenhouse customers. Job alerts allow users to subscribe to companies they want to work for, and the system flags openings that might match their profile. MyGreenhouse users also have access to additional information about the status of their applications, Strauss said.

“We’re trying to generate more and more signals beyond what’s on the resume. That’s more about, what do they want? What’s their ideal job? What are their deal breakers, things like that that we think only helps both sides,” he said.

drawing of a stick figure thinking about his dream job