Stagnant job turnover shows employers, workers cautious amid uncertainty

In this economy, the only thing making moves is our cortisol levels.

Economic uncertainty saw employers and workers pull out of the job market in 2025, leading to what’s since been described as a “no-hire, no-fire” labor market. New data shows that trend is continuing in 2026. Despite a slight uptick in job openings, labor turnover primarily continued to stagnate in January, per the latest job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Diving into the data. Job openings rose to 6.9 million in January, up from 6.6 million in December. Openings increased the most in finance and insurance, by 184,000 to 313,000, while private educational services saw the steepest decline, by 28,000 to 129,000.

Total hires in January remained unchanged month over month at 5.3 million. Total hires rose the most in professional and business services, by 35,000, and fell the most in transportation, warehousing, and utilities, by 67,000.

But don’t hold out hope that the uptick in job openings in January will materialize into job growth. The opposite happened in February, when total employment declined by 92,000, per the BLS’s latest jobs report.

“We saw that job creation pulled back pretty considerably in February, and so this trend in January of job openings increasing is unlikely to hold for the foreseeable future,” Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist with ZipRecruiter, told HR Brew.

Total quits declined slightly to 3.1 million in January, from 3.2 million in December. Professional and business services saw the steepest increase in quits, rising by 52,000 in January, while retail trade saw the steepest decline, falling by 69,000. Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges also fell slightly to 1.6 million in January. Layoffs in accommodation and food services rose the highest for that month, increasing by 25,000, and transportation, warehousing, and utilities saw the largest decline in layoffs, falling by 55,000 month over month.

2025 in review. The BLS also announced revisions to the JOLTS data for 2025, and total calculations for the year, showing a significant cooldown from the year prior. In all, total job openings fell by 571,000 between 2024 and 2025, while annual hires declined by 1.5 million. Quits also declined by 1.3 million year over year in 2025, while layoffs and discharges rose by 1.2 million.

“We saw what I think many job seekers and people in the market have already confirmed or already feel, which is there was a pretty considerable pullback in job opening and hiring activity across the year,” Bachaud said.

Zoom out. Caution is driving both employers and workers’ job decisions.

“There’s a lot of intentionality from hiring managers, and also from candidates making those decisions,” Christine Belmonte, president of technology staffing at The Planet Group, told HR Brew.

That said, they are trepidatious for different reasons. Economic uncertainty and rising costs—worsened by the war in Iran—are driving employers to maintain a stable workforce that does not expand or contract, Bachaud said. And, if they do hire, they’re taking time with decision-making.

“When it comes down from the employer’s side, it’s around their budget, and making sure that while they have it for the open roles, they’re being intentional about who they’re bringing on,” Belmonte said. “They’re thinking through it further, adding more steps, bringing in more people to the interview process, and really double clicking on their decision and timing.”

Workers, particularly those who are currently employed, have fewer incentives to switch jobs: pay bumps from changing employers have fallen from their Great Resignation-highs. They may also be worried about falling victim to being “last in, first out” should layoffs happen.

“It’s kind of like workers are playing a game of musical chairs in the market, and the music is kind of slowing down, and nobody wants to be left without a chair,” Bachaud said. “So if I’m already on the sidelines, or I’m not playing the game, then I’m at less risk as a job seeker.”

HR leaders should focus on skills, with candidates and current workers. They should work with stakeholders across the business to understand the skills that their departments will need, and how they can be acquired, either through hiring, upskilling, or automation, Belmonte said.

And, with a workforce that’s largely sitting still, HR leaders have a ripe opportunity to invest in and train workers on in-demand skills.

“This might be a really great time for that kind of internal mobility focus to be shifted for a lot of employers, just given the feelings and the general sentiment of workers right now,” Bachaud said.